Explainer: Why NATO allies are unlikely to send more advanced jets to Ukraine

London (CNN) In one of the most significant escalations of military support to Ukraine by NATO members since Russia’s aggression, Polish President Andrzej Duda on Thursday became the first leader of the security alliance to deploy fighter jets to Kiev. promised to

Duda announced that four MiG-29 fighter jets will soon be delivered to Ukraine. Four might sound like a modest number, but he said a year ago that it was politically inconceivable for a NATO member to send such sophisticated and deadly aid to Ukraine. As it stands, it’s a monumental step.

It is not surprising that this step has been taken by Poland, a country with obvious apprehensions about Russian expansionism, fueled by the deep historical experience of Russian aggression.

Is there any difference? On a political level, it is certainly possible. Normalizing such aid could start a domino effect of more European countries providing fighter jets to Ukraine.

Less than a day after Poland’s promise, Slovak Prime Minister Eduard Hager announced that he would send 13 MiG fighters to help defend Ukraine. As more European nations follow suit and modernize their air forces, it makes sense to release Soviet-designed MiGs.

This is exactly what Poland is doing. Last year, the country signed a historic $14.5 billion defense deal with South Korea, which included the purchase of 48 of his FA-50 light aircraft and the US’ F-35 Lighting II. Stealth fighters have also been added to the fleet. Another practical advantage is that many European countries have MIG-29s, so parts for them are more readily available for repair and maintenance of Ukrainian aircraft.

On the issue of military superiority, the Kremlin is predictably negative, arguing that donating Soviet-era MiGs to Ukraine would not change the course of the conflict. Maybe that’s why the F-16 and not the MiG is actually at the top of President Volodymyr Zelensky’s wish list.

For obvious reasons, the exact composition of the Ukrainian Air Force, which is probably about one-tenth the size of the Russian Air Force, remains shrouded in secrecy. After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Ukraine took over dozens of Soviet-made MiG-29 aircraft after about five years of service. But that fleet took a hit after Russia illegally annexed Crimea.

The MiG-29 is an analog aircraft using older flight technology. Zelensky’s popular F-16 is digital. MiGs can be used for short-term combat missions, can deploy weapons, and can shoot down Russian aircraft with good maneuverability at close range. But the F-16 can fly longer, is more versatile, has an integrated weapons system, and has dramatically improved long-range and radar capabilities, resulting in better early warning.

Defense analyst Alex Walmsley, Associate Fellow of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in London, says, “The analogy is when you compare a 1990s laptop to a modern MacBook, or a Ford Escort to a Porsche. Basically, they do the same thing: fly and fire missiles, but MIGs are slow to react and not as powerful.”

The United States has so far resisted calls to provide the F-16 to Ukraine to avoid escalation with Russia and on the grounds that it is unrealistic. The desire to avoid cataclysmic spillovers in the conflict came to a head this week when a Russian jet shot down a $32 million US-made ‘Reaper’ drone in the Black Sea – direct contact between Russian and American aircraft This is the first time since the war began. This incident, which may have been an incendiary bomb, was seized by Russia as evidence of America’s direct involvement in the conflict.

Yet the shift from resistance to delivery has happened before. After Germany overturned its own policy on her Leopard II tanks, the US began supplying Ukraine with her M1 Abrams tanks.

But the unrealistic argument is not just a political fig leaf. The Ukrainian Air Force already operates MiG jets, so they will be ready for use as soon as they arrive, but training a MiG-29 pilot to a high level of comfort and efficiency in his F-16 will take several It will take months. Not to mention the shortage of Ukrainian pilots.

Retired U.S. Lt. Gen. Mark Hartling noted that while Ukrainians are very adaptable with new kits like the user-friendly Himar and Javelin, the F-16 is “a whole different ball game.” They have different engine parts, designs, and fire control systems for launching and dropping bombs. “A lot of people want something to happen in Ukraine now,” says Hartling. “

The jet’s initial pledge would strengthen Ukraine’s air defenses, but would not decisively change it or provide Ukraine with an edge in the conflict. Gilpin told CNN: Move them one generation ahead. “

This is the dilemma. The impracticality of supplying Ukraine with her F-16 jets is clear, requiring a heavy burden of training in the midst of an active conflict. But without them, achieving air superiority is even more difficult.