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Back in the 1990s, a Gallup poll found that Americans were roughly evenly split between those who called themselves “pro-life” and “pro-choice.” Exit polls in the 1990s and his 2000s showed that voters who said abortion or “moral values” were most important to their vote supported Republican candidates more.
But these studies were conducted when abortion rights were national law.supreme court Dobbs Last year’s decision to end constitutional rights exposed widespread American opposition to the draconian abortion bans adopted or proposed in Republican-controlled states. It became clear that a delicate question was necessary.
Polls on abortion have a long history. In the 2000 presidential election, a national exit poll for the Los Angeles Times found that George W. Bush voters, more than Al Gore voters, rated abortion as one of his two most important issues. . It’s outlawed (although there are exceptions).
The poll offered three options in measuring voter sentiment towards abortion: keep it legal, make it illegal with exceptions, or make it illegal without exceptions.
Now, four questions is probably the best course of action for Americans grappling with this problem. Legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in all cases, illegal in most cases. The 2022 National Exit Polls will use the device, with 29% of his voters thinking abortion should be “legal in all cases” and another 30% saying it is “legal in most cases.” I understand that you think you should. The remaining 26% thought it should be “illegal in most cases” and only 10% said it should be “illegal in all cases”.
As a result, 6 in 10 voters support legal abortion most of the time, and the median voter supports some restrictions.
The case of Wisconsin is instructive in this respect.1849 Ban Triggered by Supreme Court Decision Dobbs This decision makes nearly all abortions a felony (close to the opinion held by just 10% of voters nationwide). That ban is now the subject of lawsuits, and voters are dreading the fact that whoever wins Tuesday’s election is almost certain to appear in the state Supreme Court, so it will help decide the case. I was aware of
That helps explain the breadth of Protasiewicz’s wins in a state where five of the last six major statewide races for President, Senate and Governor have been decided by three points or less. candidate Dan Kelly lost the state Supreme Court race by a similar margin in 2020, largely due to the Democratic presidential primary, which coincided with the state Supreme Court election. was. He was the only nominated candidate to appear in the Republican primary (then President Donald Trump endorsed Kerry in that election), giving Republicans little reason to vote.
The results of Tuesday’s election are still unofficial, but some county-level totals suggest younger, more liberal voters were highly motivated. It won huge numbers in one county: 82% in Dane County (University of Wisconsin-Madison), 73% in Milwaukee (University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Marquette University), and 54% in Winnebago County. (University of Wisconsin-Oshkosh). Those percentages were higher than Evers in all three of his counties, and Dane and Milwaukee’s voter turnout had a higher share of the statewide vote than his 2022 midterm elections.
A pollster for the Democratic Party, who did not directly survey for Protashevich, said that abortion in the population struck a chord with some voters, not just in numbers.
Omero described a focus group that became dominated by abortion issues. “I have friends who have had to leave the state and how many times I have really personally spoken about my own medical crisis and the abortion I had when I was younger,” said Omero, adding: [focus] The group had a story like this — they had to pause the group because they were in tears, and everyone had to comfort the person.
But it’s been almost a year since POLITICO’s first report that the Supreme Court was ready to rule. Law vs. Wade, abortion is not going away as a political flashpoint. Elsewhere in Florida, Republicans are discussing their own crackdown on abortion as Republican Governor Ron DeSantis prepares for the presidential election. Legislators in Tallahassee are undaunted by sending a bill banning abortions after the sixth week of pregnancy to DeSantis’ desk immediately, replacing her 15-week ban the state enacted last summer. increase.
After the loss in Wisconsin, such a draconian ban, along with many other bills, including the abortion-related ballot measure in the Red State, ran headlong into national public opinion. And that raises the question: How will Republicans find the message, if any, that brings the party more in line with the median voter?
One way: As the Republican National Committee said in a press release issued Thursday, Democrats are too permissive, calling for “abortion on demand for virtually any reason, up to the moment of birth.” be viewed as willing to support
However, these attacks have largely leveled off. President Joe Biden has repeatedly said he supports a Roe v. Wade framework that allows states to impose moderate restrictions on late-term abortions. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, in 2020 only 1% of women had abortions after 20 weeks’ gestation.
Instead, some conservatives are calling for a more moderate stance. Sen. Lindsey Graham (RS.C.) last year proposed a federal ban on abortion after the 15th week of pregnancy. This would introduce restrictions in states that don’t currently exist, but states may implement more restrictive bans.
Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin, a possible 2024 presidential candidate, supports a 15-week ban similar to current Florida law. Anti-abortion group Susan B. Anthony List called it a “compassionate bill,” and polls earlier this year showed a majority of voters in blue-leaning Virginia backing it. advertised as showing The group’s website features a series of public opinion data showing general support for the 15-week ban.
While the issue has turned in its favour, Democrats face their own debate over how far they should fight to expand access to abortion, with some activists arguing that the party will lift restrictions on ballot measures. argues that we should fight for state.
But the data are becoming clearer.of Law vs. Wade A framework — one that nearly legalizes abortion while allowing states to impose modest restrictions — is where the majority of American voters are. From the midterm elections to Wisconsin to the 2024 election, they continue to punish the parties that are furthest away from it.
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