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(CNN) Dangerous record-breaking heatwaves are set to increase as the climate crisis intensifies, and countries and regions least prepared for them will be particularly devastating, according to new research. .
Scientists analyzed temperature data sets and climate models spanning more than 60 years to calculate the likelihood of unprecedented heat extremes and where they might occur.
They identified Central America, including Afghanistan, Papua New Guinea, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua, as high-risk heatwave “hotspots”.
A child stands on dry land in the Bara Murghab district of Badghis province, Afghanistan, October 2021.
These regions are particularly vulnerable as their rapidly growing populations and limited access to health care and energy supplies have compromised their resilience to temperature extremes.
“There is evidence that these regions could be hit by a major heat wave and are unprepared for it,” said study co-author Dan Mitchell, professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Bristol, UK. . .
A boy in an abandoned boat on the site of Lake Atezcatempa, Guatemalé, dried up by drought and heat in May 2017.
The threat facing Afghanistan is particularly grave, Mitchell told CNN. He said that not only would a record heat wave be likely, but the impact would be exacerbated by the enormous challenges the country already faces.
Afghanistan suffers from dire social and economic problems. A growing population is also increasingly exposed to the problem of limited resources, according to the report.
“When a really extreme heat wave finally arrives, we’re going to have a lot of problems very soon,” Mitchell said.
Heat waves have a wide range of negative effects. They can reduce air quality, exacerbate droughts, increase the risk of wildfires, and collapse infrastructure.
It also wreaks havoc on human health, with extreme heat being one of the deadliest natural disasters. Heatstroke and heat stroke can cause a variety of dangerous symptoms, including headache, dizziness, nausea, and loss of consciousness. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, heat stroke is the most serious heat-related illness, causing body temperature to soar in minutes and can lead to permanent disability or death.
Some regions are already seeing unprecedented temperatures this year. Parts of Argentina experienced temperatures 10 degrees Celsius (18 degrees Fahrenheit) higher than normal in March, and most of Asia broke high temperature records in April.
Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at the Grantham Climate Change Institute at Imperial College London, said: “Heat waves and other extreme weather events will only get more intense as the world continues to burn fossil fuels. is.
Nowhere is safe, the report notes, finding a “statistically incredible” heatwave — one that far exceeded historical norms. — Occurred between 1959 and 2021 in about 30% of assessed areas. These include the 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave. This heat wave not only broke the temperature record, it completely shattered it and killed hundreds of people.
In Lytton, British Columbia, June 2021 sees a high of just below 50 degrees Celsius (121 degrees Fahrenheit), nearly five degrees above the previous record. A few days later, the village was almost completely destroyed by wildfires.
Scientists have determined that without climate change, this event would have been nearly impossible.
Smoke rises along the Fraser River Valley near Lytton, British Columbia, Canada, on July 2, 2021. A prolonged heatwave has sparked a number of wildfires in western provinces of Canada.
Parts of China, including Beijing, and European countries such as Germany and Belgium also face high risks, according to the report.
Millions of people living in these densely populated areas will be severely impacted by heatwaves, even though these countries likely have the resources to mitigate some of the worst impacts. may be affected.
The report calls on governments around the world to prepare for a heat wave well above current record temperatures, including by installing cooling centers and working less hours outdoors.
Otto said there are many policies the government can implement to save lives.”
Lucas Vargas Zepetello, a research fellow at Harvard University, said the likelihood of an unprecedented thermal event is increasing as the world continues to burn fossil fuels. century.
Vargas Zepetello told CNN, “By definition, we don’t know what happens when large populations are subjected to unprecedented heat and humidity stress, but heatwaves in the past few decades have It’s already very deadly and has serious causes.Further concerns.”
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