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Bangkok, Thailand – Thailand’s reformist opposition has defiantly rejected nearly a decade of military and military-backed rule, winning the most seats and the most votes in the country’s elections.
Nearly all votes were counted, with the progressive Progressive Party (MFP) and the populist Pheu Thai Party expected to win 286 of the 500 seats on Monday.
However, it remains unclear whether the next government can be formed due to the distorted rule that 250 senators appointed by the military can vote for the prime minister.
In other words, the MFP and the Pheu Thai Party need the support of smaller parties to form a new government.
The night’s biggest winner was the MFP, a youth-led political party that entered the general election for the first time with a bold platform to curb the entrenched power of Thailand’s royalist and military elite.
With 99% of the preliminary results published on the Election Commission’s website, the MFP would have won the largest share of the House of Representatives with a total of 147 seats. These include 112 of the 400 seats directly elected and 35 of the 100 seats assigned to political parties on a proportional basis.
Analysts called the MFP’s results “outstanding,” as pre-election polls expected the Pheu Thai Party, which has ties to the billionaire Shinawatra family and has won every election since 2001, to hold the largest share. ‘ said.
The results showed that Pheu Thai Party won 138 seats, including 112 directly elected seats and 27 seats from party lists.
The performance of the Royalist army was poor.
The Thai National Party, led by Prime Minister Prayut Chan-ocha, which first came to power in a coup in 2014, had slipped to fifth place with 36 seats. His former political party, Paran Pracharat, was fourth with around 40 seats.
Third place went to Bhumjaithai, who spearheaded the marijuana legalization movement in Thailand. The party, which is now part of the ruling coalition, was expected to win about 70 seats.
“The result is a very impressive victory for the Progressive Party,” said Titipol Pakdewanich, professor of political science at Ubon Ratchathani University in eastern Thailand.
“This is a big turning point for Thailand because it shows that most Thai people want change,” he told Al Jazeera. “This time, we are really witnessing the power of voters who fought hard for change.”
‘sensational’
Indeed, on Sunday’s election day, thousands of Thais, young and old, turned out to vote, and many voiced their desire for change. In the capital Bangkok, voters braved the sweltering heat to exercise their right to vote, and by noon polling officials said more than half of voters had exercised their right to vote.
Among them was 60-year-old Mallika Sribunlun, who told Al Jazeera she was “thrilled” to vote this year. His entire family and most of his neighbors had already voted, he said. “I came to vote because I want better people to run the country,” she added.
Voting went smoothly across the country, with long, orderly lines from the beginning of the day in the northern city of Chiang Mai, the eastern resort city of Pattaya and the western tourist island of Phuket.
In all of these, MFP received overwhelming support in the polls.
In Bangkok, he is poised to win all but one of the capital’s 33 constituencies.
Chiang Mai, the second most populous province and long regarded as the home of the Pro-Thai faction, is expected to win seven of the 10 seats. In Pattaya, 7 out of 10 seats are likely to be contested. And in Phuket it won all three electoral seats.
The atmosphere at the MFP’s campaign headquarters turned exciting as the results began rolling in on Sunday evening. “Before the election, I expected to win about 100 seats,” said 33-year-old engineer Phisit Claylot. “But the real-time updates I’m seeing today have already exceeded my expectations.”
Party leader Pita Rimjaroenrat also arrived to cheer and thanked supporters for the “sensational result”. “It has become clear that Move Forward has the tremendous trust of the people and the state,” he wrote on Twitter early Monday morning.
MFP candidates and supporters rejoiced.
“I am surprised that the MFP will become the first party to form a government,” said Piyarat “Toto” Chongthep, who was elected in the Bangna district of Bangkok.
The 28-year-old activist spearheaded mass youth-led demonstrations in 2020 that broke long-standing taboos calling for a curb on King Maha Vajiralongkorn’s power. He is also one of several protest leaders who have run for Congress under the MFP banner.
“For the party, it’s more than we ever imagined,” Piyarat told Al Jazeera. “I really can’t explain how I feel right now.”
Phaethongtharn Shinawatra, head of the Pheu Thai Party headquarters across town, congratulated the MFP and said the party with the most votes should lead the next government.
“We are ready to talk with Move Forward, but we are waiting for the official results,” she said late Sunday. “I’m happy for them,” she added. “We can work together.”
Prayuth, on the other hand, had a grumpy look on his face and said nothing.
The incumbent prime minister reportedly sneaked out of the election headquarters after telling the media that he respects democracy and elections.
The Electoral Commission now has 60 days to certify election results.
“Age of uncertainty”
Despite MFP’s strong performance, analysts say it is facing an uphill battle over the Bangkok governor’s office. That’s because the winning candidate would need 376 votes in both chambers to become prime minister.
Political analyst Ken Mathis Rohatepanon told the Thai Enquirer that “at this point it is still unclear whether the Senate is willing to honor Move Forward’s mandate.”
The military-appointed parliament is leading to sweeping reforms to the monarchy and military by the MFP, including revisions to Thailand’s draconian lese majeste law. The vaguely worded Section 112 carries a penalty of 15 years in prison, and rights groups claim it has been used to punish political activism.
In the last election in 2019, the Senate voted unanimously for Prayuth, even though he won far fewer seats than the Pheu Thai Party. He then formed a coalition government of 19 different parties and was able to remain prime minister for four years.
Without Senate support, the MFP will need the support of both the Pheu Thai Party and other smaller parties such as Bhumjaithai, led by incumbent Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul.
All of this means that it could be weeks for Thai voters to find out who will lead the new government.
“Despite Move Forward winning the poll, Thailand is likely to remain in a long period of uncertainty,” Rohatepanon wrote.
Additional reports by Pakalat Jirenuwat from Bangkok, Vijitra Duangri from Pattaya and Kate Mayberry from Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
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