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The storm is expected to form west along Interstate 95 between 3:30pm and 5:30pm and east of Interstate between 5pm and 7pm .Head east by about 10pm
The National Weather Service issued a severe thunderstorm warning through 10 p.m. for the Washington and Baltimore areas south of Richmond and near the Virginia-North Carolina border. It also extends eastward over most of the entire Delmarva Peninsula.
The Weather Service wrote, “Thunderstorms continue to intensify along the Blue Ridge in central Virginia, with the storm moving east across the monitored area into the afternoon.” There is a risk of hail damage.”
This is the first severe thunderstorm warning of 2023 for the Washington, DC area. The clock means you are well prepared for a severe storm, and be careful to stay alert.In case of severe thunderstorms caveat is issued, it means that a severe storm is imminent or is occurring and action must be taken immediately.
Storm Timing, Coverage, and Major Hazards
Severe storms, defined as storms with gusts of at least 58 miles per hour or hail greater than 1 inch in diameter, are most likely to occur between approximately 3:00 PM and 8:00 PM. Severe weather risk is 5. In the DC area, Level 2 risk is concentrated along and southeast of Interstate 95, while Level 1 risk covers the rest of the region.
timing: Frederick, Loudoun, and Fokie counties may experience storms to the northwest and west at 2:00 or 3:00 p.m. Severe weather is most likely to occur in this area around 3:00 PM to 8:00 PM, which may coincide with the central commuter.Showers or a light storm can persist after 8 PM
coverage: The storms should be interspersed as they move primarily west to east, but some larger clusters are likely, with the most storms expected near and east of I-95.
dangerous: The main serious risk is that wind speeds of the order of 60 to 70 mph can topple trees and power lines, ranging from isolated to scattered. Hail, short torrential downpours, and frequent lightning are also possible. Tornadoes are very unlikely, but not zero.
rainfall: Plan for few inches of rain. seriously. Storms can disperse in nature, so in some places you can’t see anything but wet ground, in others it can be an inch or two faster. A total height of 2 to 3 inches is not impossible if the storm repeatedly passes through one location.
Today’s set-up is characterized by a cold front moving slowly through the region from the west, with a surge of warmth and humidity from the south along the front.
Meanwhile, in the upper atmosphere, a jet stream depression blows out of the Ohio Valley. A combination of cool, windy air and a front will create a volatile air mass late Thursday afternoon into the evening.
A weaker area of low pressure could later develop along the Virginia front, which would further increase the likelihood of updrafts and storms.
Wind shear, or the increase in wind strength with altitude, is another factor. A weather balloon launched by the Japan Meteorological Agency this morning detected a fairly strong wind shear. It is expected to intensify during the day as the jet stream plummets closer. This may support more organized and long-lived storm cells, including multi-cell clusters, and support spins in the mid-atmosphere that could lead to supercells.
One of the factors that can limit storm development is the limited instability detected by weather balloons. The region needs sufficient surface heating from the sun to destabilize the atmosphere. Areas with more sunlight in the early to mid-afternoon are more likely to see strong to severe storms.
The Weather Service could issue a severe thunderstorm warning for at least parts of the DC area by mid-afternoon. A Severe Thunderstorm Advisory is issued when severe storms are possible but not yet certain.
We will monitor the situation and issue updates as necessary.
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