Opinion | The Editorial Board interviews NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg

Lee Hockstader, Washington Post Editorial Board: How did the war force NATO to recalibrate its defense posture and doctrine?

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg: The war in Ukraine has fundamentally changed NATO, but we must remember that the war didn’t start in 2022. The war started in 2014. The war.

For the first time in our history, we have combat-ready troops in the Eastern, Polish, Lithuanian and Baltic battle groups, in fact across eight battle groups from the Baltic to the Black Sea. Higher readiness of our army. and increased defense spending. By 2014, NATO allies were cutting their defense budgets. Since 2014, all European and Canadian allies have significantly increased their defense spending. And we’ve modernized our command structure, conducted more exercises, and established new military domains like cyber. All in all, this is a huge transformation of NATO that started in 2014.

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Hockstad: Yet only seven NATO members have met the alliance’s goal of spending 2% of their GDP on defense.

Stoltenberg: First, compared to 2014, there are significant differences. By 2014, it was in decline. Now let’s go up.

Second, the NATO allies in Europe and Canada have added $350 billion to defense spending since 2014. This is important. More and more allies are meeting his 2% target, and almost all have plans to hit the target within a few years. And, of course, the war in Ukraine showed the importance of investment.

Hockstad: What are the plausible ways for Ukraine to finally join NATO?

Stoltenberg: First of all, all NATO allies agree that Ukraine will become a member of the alliance. All allies agree that Ukraine has the right to choose its own path and that it is Kiev, not Moscow, that decides. agrees to remain open. So the question is when will it be, and I can’t give you a timetable for that.

All I can say is help them move from Soviet-era equipment, doctrines and standards to NATO doctrines and standards, make their armed forces interoperable with NATO armed forces, and help them make further reforms and reforms. We are currently working with them to help them do that. Modernize defense and security agencies.

The urgent task now is to ensure that Ukraine prevails as a sovereign and independent state. Because if Ukraine did not have the upper hand, there would be absolutely no issues to discuss.

Hockstad: No real move to nuclear deployment by Russian President Vladimir Putin. In fact, China has warned against it, and it should carry some weight in Moscow. Should the world regard these nuclear threats as credible?

Stoltenberg: NATO has basically two missions in war. One is to help Ukraine like us. Another is to prevent escalation. And we make it clear that we are not parties to the conflict, and as we have done so far, we are allied with 40,000 troops under NATO command, backed by a de facto navy and air force. Prevent escalation by increasing military presence in the East.

In addition, there are constant discussions about what kind of weapons should be provided, and the issue of fighter aircraft is also being discussed among allies. While it is important to discuss new systems, it is also very important to focus on maintaining all the systems we have already delivered, including ammunition, spare parts and maintenance.

Hockstad: A Discord leak confirmed that US intelligence agencies are assessing the remote possibility of major territorial changes resulting from the upcoming Ukrainian offensive. Do you share that rating?

Stoltenberg: So first of all, I’m not going to confirm the information in these leaks. At least some have been manipulated and are known to be incorrect.

Secondly, Ukrainians have proven that they can retake territory.

Third, there has been a huge and unprecedented supply of new weapons, ammunition, spare parts and training since the winter when these leaks allegedly occurred. As such, NATO allies and partners have trained more than nine brigades this winter. These brigades are now fully equipped, fully manned and well trained. And that’s a fair amount of combat power, including 230 tanks, heavily armored. And many modern weapon systems.

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Hockstad: Is it plausible that China could play a diplomatic role in negotiations to end the war?

Stoltenberg: So far, they have been unable to condemn the illegal invasion of Ukraine, but welcome the conversation between President Volodymyr Zelensky and President Xi Jinping.

What happened in Europe matters to Asia, and what happens in Asia matters to Europe. Because if Putin wins in Ukraine, it will be a tragedy for Ukrainians. But it’s also dangerous for all of us. This is because it sends a message not only to President Putin, but also to President Xi Jinping, that if you use military force, you will get what you want. And it makes us more vulnerable.

Hockstad: Clearly, NATO is about the North Atlantic, not the Pacific, yet a war over Taiwan could easily target US military bases in the Pacific. Can you imagine a scenario in which NATO is embroiled in conflict with China?

Stoltenberg: Yes, NATO will continue to be an alliance between North America and Europe. It will not be a global alliance with Asian members. In addition, collective security guarantees apply to NATO territories. Second, conflicts in and around Taiwan have serious consequences for all of us. Trade, her 50% of container cargo, vessels pass through the Taiwan Strait. A significant amount of the world’s semiconductors are produced in Taiwan. As such, the economic and trade impact of the Taiwan conflict will soon be enormous. And, of course, military conflict is important for NATO and NATO’s allies.

Hockstad: What is your assessment of French President Emmanuel Macron’s ambitions for European strategic autonomy?

Stoltenberg: We welcome the European Union’s defense efforts. Duplication and competition are what we must avoid, partly because the EU cannot protect Europe. 80% of NATO’s defense spending comes from non-EU allies. It’s also about geography. A NATO map shows Norway to the north and Turkey to the south, but of course the United States, Canada and Great Britain are also important to Europe’s defense.

And politically, attempts to weaken ties between North America and Europe do more than divide NATO. It divides Europe. If the war in Ukraine has taught us anything, it is that North America and Europe must come together. Non-EU NATO allies such as the US, Canada and the UK have been training Ukrainian forces since 2014. And of course they serve good portions. 78% of aid to Ukraine comes from non-EU NATO allies.

Hockstad: What does a second Trump administration mean for US leaders and NATO?

Stoltenberg: I was Secretary General when Donald Trump was President of the United States. Of course, there have been disagreements among NATO allies on issues ranging from climate change to the Iran nuclear deal.

But the fact is, we could actually do more together when it comes to NATO issues. Again, this shows the strength of NATO and how we have always been united around our core values.

Hockstad: Polls show that support for Ukraine is declining, especially among Republicans.

Stoltenberg: I am absolutely certain that strong US bipartisan support for Ukraine will continue. A strong NATO is good for Europe, and support for Ukraine is good for the US. Especially when we see security challenges from China.

No other great power has 30 friends and allies like the United States in NATO. Neither Russia nor China has anything similar. And NATO allies account for 50% of the world’s military power and 50% of the world’s economic power. So, of course, even our greatest ally, the United States, needs friends. If Putin wins, it will be a tragedy for Ukrainians and a danger to all of us, including the United States.

Hockstad: Would a Russian attack on critical infrastructure such as submarine cables owned by NATO member states or companies trigger the invocation of NATO’s Article 5?

Stoltenberg: That’s for NATO to decide. We are currently looking at how we can do more when it comes to sharing information, including with the private sector, to detect potential threats. that’s one thing. The other is presence, military presence, as a way to not only deter but also monitor.

While not every internet cable can be end-to-end, its presence can mitigate risk and reduce the likelihood of Russian denial. The last few years have seen Russia not seeking a full-scale confrontation with NATO. Of course, attacks against undersea infrastructure are also difficult to monitor and therefore easy to deny.