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(CNN) A top-class classified Pentagon document posted on social media shows a pessimistic US view of the state of the war in Ukraine, highlighting weaknesses in Ukraine’s weapons and air defenses, pushing the war into a stalemate for months to come. I predict that it will be
The documents, believed to be from February and March, detail many of Ukraine’s perceived military shortfalls as Kiev prepares for a spring counterattack against Russia.
Several classified documents warn that Ukraine’s medium-range air defense system to protect front-line forces “will be completely cut down by May 23,” meaning Russia will soon gain air superiority. , suggesting that Ukraine may lose its ability to muster ground forces in a counterattack.
The document also highlights lingering issues regarding Russia’s own military offensive, and predicts a stalemate between the two sides as a result in the near future.
“The war of attrition in Russia’s Donbass region is likely headed for a stalemate, thwarting Mosco’s goal of occupying the entire region by 2023,” one of the classified documents states.
Officials familiar with the situation told CNN that the documents appear to be part of a daily intelligence briefing deck prepared for senior Pentagon leaders, including Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Mark Milley. Told.
The leak of documents represents a serious breach of national security, many of which are classified, and while the Pentagon investigates how the leak affects U.S. national security, the Justice Department A criminal investigation has been launched as to who may have leaked them.In addition to the assessment of the war in Ukraine, the documents contain information gathered about allied and enemy countries.
Retired Lt. Gen. Mark Hartling, a national security and military analyst for CNN, said the challenges Ukraine faces in its planned counteroffensive include the need to integrate new equipment and new forces and ensure adequate supply chains. I said it was clear from a few weeks ago. in place. He did not believe that the leak of documents would change Kiev’s plans.
“I didn’t see anything in the documents that would change my plans as commander,” Herdling said. “Some information has been given to the Russians regarding the unit’s position, ammunition and equipment capabilities, but anyway, I think the Russians already knew it all.”
US officials publicly warn war could drag on
In many respects, the assessment of the Ukraine war reflects what U.S. officials have said publicly, as senior Biden administration officials say the conflict is likely to last for months, if not longer. is similar to
But a detailed and unwavering assessment of the war is clearly shown in the briefing slides on the challenges Ukraine faces despite its successes more than a year before the war.
Officials in the country, which is part of a Five Eyes intelligence-sharing pact with the United States, previously told CNN it was alarming to see leaked Ukrainian war information put the country at a disadvantage on the battlefield. Said it should be done.
“Ukraine’s gains will be difficult to achieve, but it doesn’t help that a private assessment of the United States publicly reveals a perhaps year-long stalemate,” the official said.
Publicly, US and Ukrainian officials downplay the importance of classified documents.
According to Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, Secretary of State Antony Brinken has reaffirmed the US’ “ironproof” support for Ukraine following leaked Pentagon documents.
During Tuesday’s conference call, Blinken “reaffirmed the firm support of the United States and vehemently rejected any attempt to call into question Ukraine’s ability to win the battlefield,” Kleba wrote on Twitter on Tuesday.
“The United States remains Ukraine’s trusted partner and remains focused on advancing victory and ensuring a just peace,” Kuleva said.
At a press conference on Tuesday, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said the Pentagon would “turn every stone upside down until it finds the source” of leaked intelligence documents.
CNN has investigated 53 leaked documents, all of which appear to have been created between mid-February and early March.
At least one of the documents previously reported by CNN listed Russian and Ukrainian casualty figures and reported that the Russian death toll had been cut by more than half before being circulated on pro-Russian Telegram channels.
Still, US officials admit that most of the documents appear to be genuine. A source close to Zelensky told CNN that Ukraine has already changed some of its military plans because of the leaks.
“These documents are static. They are pictures of a particular time period. Both the US and Ukraine have the ability to modify what they are doing and how they are tackling this issue. , Ukraine certainly has plenty of time, do it,” House Intelligence Chairman Mike Turner told CNN’s Jake Tupper on Monday.
Additional documents have also emerged. The Washington Post reported on Monday that another leaked document, along with a bleak assessment from February, could put Ukraine “well below” its planned spring counterattack targets.
According to a February document, the United States estimated that Ukraine could form 12 combat brigades for a spring counteroffensive, three of which would be trained in Ukraine and nine trained and equipped in the United States. there is Six of the brigades will be ready by the end of March and the other six by the end of April, according to the documents.
The leaked documents include detailed maps of battlefield positions, statistics on the number of soldiers killed and wounded, and estimates of tanks, fighters, and other weapons deployed and destroyed.
One of the slides shows a timeline of when the Ukrainian ground will freeze, become muddy, and when it will be advantageous to pass.
Ukrainian forces are being assessed around Bakhmut, where the heaviest fighting between the two sides took place this year. In an update in February, intelligence assessments included details of villages Ukrainian forces had withdrawn and positions still in control.
Natasha Bertrand and Alex Marquardt contributed to this report.
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