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2023 is an off year for US politics, largely driven by the emerging Republican presidential primary and a string of scandals and controversies, but there are still important elections to come this year, and by 2024 both parties will be on the same page. It provides an early window into the mood of voters.
In Kentucky, the contested GOP primary for governor ends Tuesday. The two pillars of the state’s Republican apparatus have escalated their attacks on each other in an attempt to counter the Red State’s rare Democratic leader and one of the nation’s most popular governors, Gov. Andy Beshear. ing. On Monday, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis entered the race by endorsing one leading candidate, and the race has long backed another leading candidate, Donald J. Trump. It was like the last proxy war of 2024 against Mr.
In Philadelphia, the sixth-most populous city in the United States and the liberal home of the purple state of Pennsylvania, voters will choose a Democratic candidate for mayor, but he’s likely to be the city’s next leader. This year’s presidential election is sure and has the potential to be a high-profile figure in the next election. And two special elections in the state could give control of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives, which has a narrow Democratic majority.
And in Delaware County, one of Philadelphia’s suburban “color counties,” a special election for a vacant state legislative seat in a once-certainly Democratic precinct was surprisingly close. It will determine who controls the Pennsylvania Legislature.
Jacksonville, Florida, America’s most populous city to have a Republican mayor, is also in a notable mayoral race. The candidate to replace Lenny Curry as mayor is Democrat Donna Deegan. support Abortion Rights Rep. Daniel Davis is a Republican who has emphasized the party’s message on crime and police.
Political celebrity vs. cash vs. traditionalists
Nova’s First Trial: Daniel Cameron was already a trailblazer as Kentucky’s first black man elected attorney general and the first Republican elected to the office in nearly 50 years. However, his political celebrity skyrocketed after giving a primetime speech at the 2020 Republican National Convention.
Cameron is a close ally of Senator Mitch McConnell. Some in the state refer to him as a protégé of Mr. McConnell. Having announced his candidacy a year ago, he was expected to lose the Republican gubernatorial nomination.
But former U.N. ambassador to the United Nations and member of the great Republican donor family, Kelly Craft, has plowed millions of dollars of her personal fortune into an aggressive advertising campaign that once saw it lag behind other fields by double digits. , but it shrunk significantly in the spring. , attacked Mr. Cameron and raised his own profile. While he hasn’t completely closed the gap in the polls, Republican operatives in the state say the race has suddenly become too close to judge.
On Monday, Ms. DeSantis endorsed Mr. Kraft, recording a message on her behalf for use on automated calls, adding even more uncertainty to the campaign. The move would go head to head between DeSantis, who is expected to announce his 2024 campaign soon, and Trump, who backed Cameron in June 2022.
Freeze rather than fracture. The heated primary in Kentucky hasn’t divided the party like last year’s equally controversial primary. The main reason is that the top candidates belong to the conservative side of the party, but they do not embrace the party’s more fringe issues, such as conspiracy theories about voting machines.
And, of course, money also plays a role. Republican lawmakers in the state don’t want to jeopardize Mr. Cameron’s orbit, but they also don’t want to take the wrong side of Republican politics’s biggest funder, the Crafts Party.
Friendly Wildcard: The race’s attention is mainly focused on Mr. Cameron and Mr. Kraft. But there is a third candidate with a strong path to victory. Ryan Qualls, agricultural commissioner and longtime Frankfort resident.
Mr. Qualls’ campaign focused on local support rather than flashy advertising and television appearances, winning the support of more than 230 mayors, judges and county officials. Those endorsements, combined with significant support from the farming community, could give Qualls enough grounds to win an election split among the three parties.
Trump the Kingmaker? Or DeSantis?
what scandal? Even if While he’s riddled with legal troubles and faces an unfavorable verdict in a civil case won by E. Gene Carroll, Trump still has a hard time winning in Republican primaries, especially in states like Kentucky. The most popular and influential person. In 2020, the difference was more than 25 points.
When asked about the jury’s finding that Trump was responsible for sexually abusing and denigrating Carroll during the debate, Cameron said he was “honoured” to still have the support of the former president. repeated.
no, he supported myself. Both candidates can claim the former president’s affections. Kraft has served in the Trump administration, donated to the campaign and even played with Trump in the 2022 Kentucky Derby. She posted several of her ads comparing her own style to Mr Trump’s.
But Trump endorsed Cameron (admittedly, that was before Kraft officially entered the campaign), a fact Cameron repeatedly mentioned in stump speeches and ads. are doing.
“No matter what others say, President Donald J. Trump supports this gubernatorial campaign,” Cameron told an audience at a Republican dinner in Meade County last month.
Now, of course, Mr. DeSantis supports Mr. Kraft, and both will hope that his recent endorsement will be more vividly remembered in the minds of voters heading to the polls.
The forefront of education and ‘awakened’ politics
2017 redux? Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin of light blue Virginia scored a surprise victory in 2017 with a relentless focus on education. He portrayed Democrats as trying to introduce inappropriate content to young students and argued that school curricula should be determined by parents, not teachers.
Both Cameron and Kraft have made education reform a cornerstone of their campaign speeches. Mr Cameron said this was the number one problem he heard from voters and promised to fire the Democratic-appointed education secretary. During his stumps speech, Kraft holds up a copy of a book he bans.
“Awakened” War: Both candidates repeatedly exploded with ‘awakened’ ideology on the pitch. For months, visitors to Mr Kraft’s website were greeted with videos denouncing his “woke” policy.
This loosely defined conservative catchall—a term even Florida Governor Ron DeSantis frequently uses—has certainly taken root among Republican constituencies. Often, it’s the biggest line of applause for both Mr. Kraft and Mr. Cameron.
But beyond the primary, even in red-hot Kentucky, it remains to be seen how voters in the general election will react to a clear anti-“awakener” campaign.
The battle for the future of Philadelphia
A test to test the strength of the left wing: In a crowded Democratic mayoral race, former city council member Helen Jim is the frontrunner, backed by national left leaders such as Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York. emerged as a progressive candidate.
The two held a rally with her on Sunday, and Brandon Johnson, who won last month’s Chicago mayoral election, endorsed her and raised money for her.
A veteran community organizer with a particular focus on schools, Jim’s victory will be celebrated by progressive leaders across the country as the latest in a string of left-wing victories in major cities, but it’s not going anywhere at the national level. Their success is recent. much more mixed.
But whatever the outcome, many Pennsylvania political observers would draw overarching conclusions about the city’s mood from low voter turnout, potentially close races, or both. is sounding the alarm. Polls are sparse and expect a close and unpredictable battle.
Discussions about public safety are dominated by: Like many major American cities, Philadelphia has suffered from gun violence and other crimes in the wake of the pandemic. The picture of city safety is complex, but it is undoubtedly a crucial issue in the mayoral race.
Democrats running for mayor disagree on issues such as the use of police officers to crack down on citizens, particularly the use of stop-and-frisk, and whether or not to increase the number of police officers.
But across the ideological spectrum, they emphasize efforts to make cities safer, and have broader views on the need to both fill police vacancies and condemn police abuses. Consensus has been reached.
Control of the Pennsylvania Legislature
Democratic concerns: Democrats hold a single-vote majority in the Pennsylvania House of Representatives, but two special elections on Tuesday could return control to Republicans.
There is one vacant seat in the 108th congressional district in north-central Pennsylvania, where voters are most likely to go Republican.
Elections for the 163rd legislative district in southeastern Delaware County should be a point of contention for Democrats. The system was surrendered by former state congressman Mike Zabel, who resigned in March over allegations of harassment. But Zabel won the district by about 30 points in November, and the seat is definitely in a Democratic district.
But there are growing concerns that the seat may not be as safe as it sounds, and Democrats in the state are calling for voters in the area to mobilize to polling stations. Governor Josh Shapiro (Democrat), I recently made a 30 second video Highlight race.
Abortion rights: Democrats say the race is important to defending abortion rights in Pennsylvania, where abortion is still legal. If Republicans gain control of the House of Representatives, they could join the Republican-controlled Senate in voting on the possibility of banning abortion as a constitutional amendment.
But such bans have largely failed in 2022, often becoming a revitalizing force for Democratic candidates and causes. In red-hot Kansas, in particular, voters voted down an abortion ban months before the 2022 midterm elections.
Reed J. Epstein contributed to the report.
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