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“I was really impressed [that graphic] indicated the consequences of choices and actions currently being taken in reducing [greenhouse gas] emissions for current and future generations and for our children,” said Christopher Trissos, a member of the integrated report’s core writing team and who helped with the graphics.
Overall, the report, released Monday, found that the extent of warming, and the subsequent state of the environment, wildlife, and our own health, could change depending on policies and actions we take today. According to NASA climate scientist Alex Ruan, a NASA member, the policies currently in place will increase global temperatures by about 3.2 degrees Celsius by 2100. He was a member of the integrated report’s core writing team and assisted with the overall concept and scientific content of the figure.
This graphic centers around a popular visual called climate stripes. The stripes show global warming as colored vertical lines. The Climate Stripes were created by climate scientist Ed Hawkins in 2018. with inspiration From previous scientists and crochet patterns. In creating her new IPCC report, graphic her designer Arlene Bart suggested visuals that, alongside striped patterns, represent temperature changes between generations.
The visual shows that someone born in 1950 entered the world when there was about 0.25 degrees of warming compared to the late 1800s, Ruane said. Humans have experienced 0.85 degrees of warming in their lifetime so far, about 0.12 degrees per decade, he said.
A person born in 1980 has warmed about 0.4 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial times, and has risen 0.75 degrees Celsius in about 40 years to date (about 0.19 degrees per decade, according to Ruane). So far, he said, the rate of warming has been nearly 50% faster for those born in 1980 than for those born in 1950.
For those born in 2020, the degree of warming will largely depend on the reaction of society. In a higher-emissions scenario, people born in 2020 would see their 10-year average warming rate nearly triple by age 70 compared to what people born in 1950 experienced. Higher, says Ruane. Still, if warming is kept below 2 degrees or 1.5 degrees (as seen in the low and very low scenarios), generations in the 2020s could see climate stabilization before they turn 30, he said. rice field.
Ruane added that while the average decade of warming doesn’t necessarily capture acceleration, it does convey a core climate message: each generation has already had a different set of experiences, Future generations are set to experience a warming that no living person has yet seen.
“It’s not just about getting warmer. It’s about having different experiences when it comes to human health and ecosystems and extreme events that you may experience,” Ruan said.
Today’s average global temperature has increased by 1.1 degrees Celsius (2 degrees Fahrenheit) since the beginning of the industrial age. This is largely due to human activities such as burning fossil fuels releasing heat-trapping gases into the atmosphere. Researchers have called for reducing fossil fuel consumption and limiting future warming of the planet to ideally 1.5 degrees Celsius, as further warming would make climate hazards substantially more extreme and less adaptive. said it would be possible.
Countries must deliver on their current climate commitments and introduce new environmental policies to limit warming to levels that communities can reasonably adapt to.
This report outlines some impacts of rapid global warming. Population decline and extinction, increased risk of heat stroke, and reduced crop and fisheries yields.
This figure shows the observed and future paths of mean global temperature, with regional variations. Some regions have already warmed by 2 degrees. Many of the world’s poorest countries are bearing the brunt of rising global warming and will continue to suffer.
Trisos, who is also director of the Climate Risks Institute at the University of Cape Town’s Institute for African Climate and Development Studies, said people born in Southeast Asia in 2020 could face up to 150 days of extreme heat per year when they turn 70. said. End of the century old. Florida, on the other hand, experienced extreme heat 50 days a year.
Many of the pathways will remain fairly similar over the next decade or so, but begin to diverge significantly around 2040 and 2050. The very low and low greenhouse gas scenarios show carbon dioxide emissions falling to net zero around 2050 and 2070, respectively. High greenhouse gas emissions scenarios show that carbon dioxide emissions will double from current levels by 2100. Scenarios with very high greenhouse gas emissions show carbon dioxide emissions doubling even more rapidly by 2050.
“In either case, the impacts would be more severe than they are now. So climate change will not only go away, it will only get worse,” he wrote in several IPCC reports, including this one. Niklas Höhne, a NewClimate Institute scientist who has said in an email. “By taking immediate action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, we can slow change. The report also says we have all the means to do so.”
Sarah Kaplan contributed to this report.
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